Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is, however, scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important for the design of […]
The future costs of nuclear power using multiple expert elicitations: effects of RD&D and elicitation design
10/09/2013 by
Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles
01/09/2013 by
The paper describes the results of a survey, carried out with leading EU experts, on the capacity of both fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to reach commercial success in the next twenty years. The success of electric transport is hampered by a combination of low range, scarce efficiency and high costs of batteries. Costs […]
Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: the importance of electric drive vehicles
29/04/2013 by
With a focus on establishing whether climate targets can be met under different personal transport scenarios we introduce a transport sector representing the use and profile of light domestic vehicles (LDVs) into the integrated assessment model WITCH. In doing so we develop long term projections of light domestic vehicle use and define potential synergies between […]
Advanced biofuels: Future perspectives from an expert elicitation survey
09/03/2013 by
This paper illustrates the main results of an expert elicitation survey on advanced (second and third generation) biofuel technologies. The survey focuses on eliciting probabilistic information on the future costs of advanced biofuels and on the potential role of Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) efforts in reducing these costs and in supporting the deployment of […]
Energy intensity developments in 40 major economies: Structural change or technology improvement?
11/10/2012 by
This study analyzes energy intensity trends and drivers in 40 major economies using the WIOD database, a novel harmonized and consistent dataset of input–output table time series accompanied by environmental satellite data. We use logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition to (1) attribute efficiency changes to either changes in technology or changes in the structure of […]
Expert Judgments about RD&D and the Future of Nuclear Energy
08/10/2012 by
Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts […]
Timing of Mitigation and Technology Availability in Achieving a Low-Carbon World
09/07/2012 by
This paper analyzes the economic and investment implications of a series of climate mitigation scenarios, characterized by different levels of ambition for long-term stabilization goals and transitional pathways. Results indicate that although milder climate objectives can be achieved at moderate costs, stringent stabilization paths, compatible with the 2°C target, might require significant economic resources. Innovation […]
A Good Opening: The Key to Make the Most of Unilateral Climate Action
04/06/2012 by
In this paper we argue that when a subgroup of countries cooperate on emission reduction, the optimal response of non-signatory countries reflects the interaction between three potentially opposing factors, the incentive to free-ride on the benefits of cooperation, the incentive to expand the demand of fossil fuels, and the incentive to adopt cleaner technologies introduced […]
The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey
04/06/2012 by
In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how […]
Incentives and Stability of International Climate Coalitions: an Integrated Assessment
23/02/2012 by
This paper analyses the incentives to participate in and the stability of international climate coalitions. Using the integrated assessment model WITCH, the analysis of coalitions’ profitability and stability is performed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the social welfare aggregator and the extent of climate damages. We focus on the profitability, […]
What should we expect from innovation? A model-based assessment of the environmental and mitigation cost implications of climate-related R&D
11/01/2012 by
This paper addresses two basic issues related to technological innovation and climate stabilisation objectives: i) Can innovation policies be effective in stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations? ii) To what extent can innovation policies complement carbon pricing (taxes or permit trading) and improve the economic efficiency of a mitigation policy package? To answer these questions, we use […]
Efficiency Improving Fossil Fuel Technologies for Electricity Generation: Data Selection and Trends
16/02/2011 by
This paper studies innovation dynamics in efficiency improving electricity generation technologies as an important means of mitigating climate change impacts. Relevant patents are identified and used as an indicator of innovation. We find that patenting in efficiency improving technologies has mostly been stable over time, with a recent decreasing trend. We also find that majority […]
Environmental Policy and Technical Change: A Survey
22/11/2010 by
In this survey we review the literature that studies the relationship between environmental policy and technical change. We divide the literature in two broad areas of research. First, we look at the studies that evaluate the impact of environmental regulation on technological change after the implementation of environmental policy (ex-post). Second, we introduce the studies […]
The value of better information on technology R&D projects in response to climate change
06/08/2010 by
Expert elicitations are a promising method for determining how R&D investments are likely to have an impact on technological advance in climate change energy technologies. But, expert elicitations are time-consuming and resource intensive. Thus, we investigate the value of the information gained in expert elicitations. More specifically, given baseline elicitations from one study (Baker, Chon, […]
