Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is, however, scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important for the design of […]
The future costs of nuclear power using multiple expert elicitations: effects of RD&D and elicitation design
Verdolini, E., L.A. Diaz and G. Nemet (2012), “Meta-Analysis Of Expert Elicitations Of Future Technology Outcomes For Nuclear Power”, Mimeo, 12th IAEE European Energy Conference “Energy challenge and environmental sustainability“, September 9-12, 2012, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice.
Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different scenarios of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) spending were obtained from 30 U.S. and 30 European nuclear technology experts. We used a novel elicitation approach which combined individual and group elicitation. With no change from current RD&D funding levels, experts […]
The future role of nuclear energy is a key factor in determining a long-term energy strategy to cope with the challenges ahead: quenching the energy thirst of a growing planet; providing universal access to modern sources of energy; assuring energy security and availability at reasonable costs; facing the threat of climate change, which calls for […]
The ICARUS Nuclear Survey was launched on November, 4th, 2010. The expert elicitation survey involves top European experts and aims at better understanding the current status and future prospects of nuclear research, development, and demonstration at the European and global level. This information will help draft a set of precise and comprehensive recommendations on future […]
7-8 April 2011: International Workshop on “RD&D Needs to Enhance the Role of Nuclear Energy In Meeting Climate and Energy Challenges”
The objective of the Workshop is to present the main results of an expert elicitation survey on the role of research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) in addressing the major problems of nuclear fission. After a presentation of the survey results, participants will discuss both areas of agreement and areas of disagreement, in an effort to understand where there is consensus and where the most important disputes and uncertainties lie.